Home sales in January fell to the slowest pace since 1999, says the National Association of Realtors, nearly 24 percent below January of 2006. But in the crazy world of economics, that's good news.

After learning that home sales dropped less than half a percent in January, Wall Street's traffic light turned green, because the news was better than expected. Single-family home prices made an attractive drop of five percent from a year earlier to a median price below $200,000. Condos dropped only one percent year-over-year to $220,000.

But Realty Times still recommends looking both ways before crossing the intersection. Buyers are standing in the road, and other news could blindside housing again.

First, January sales had a bit of a tailwind with interest rates under 6 percent for the month, and at times as low as 5.50 percent. Since then, inflation fears have caused bond-yields to rise sharply, taking long-term mortgage interest rates with them.

A survey by the National Association for Business Economics found that 45 percent of its members, which are economists, feel there will be a recession this year. That's way up from 25 percent six months ago.

The scarier threat is inflation, or worse stagflation, where the economy doesn't grow, but things cost more.

The N.A.R. also reported that inventories rose to a 10.3 month supply of homes on hand, 18 percent higher than the year before. If mortgage interest rates continue to rise, that could get worse.

And the credit crunch is still going on -- the liar loans are all but gone, and consumers who overspent when loan rates were lower are finding that they can't keep up with their credit cards either.

Let's not forget that the Federal Reserve reported in January that more than half of its member banks surveyed said that they tightened their standards for prime mortgages to the highest levels in 17 years, and more than 80 percent were tighter on non-traditional loans.

That alone suggests housing has further to fall -- if loans are hard to get, then the outlook for late winter housing sales isn't good.

So homeowners, sit tight. This isn't the time to try to run the yellow light. Don't put your home on the market unless you absolutely have to.

And buyers -- there are bargains out there, so don't wait for the bottom. By the time you hear about it, it will already be gone.