Builders are tired of being hammered by the press, but slowly, some writers are beginning to build a case for buying a home.

That's because the mood couldn't be gloomier in housing.

Toll Brothers CEO Robert Toll says that "ceaseless" talk of a recession continues to dampen the "mood of consumers," ... "whether or not a recession actually occurs," keeping pent-up demand for housing "on the sidelines."

His sentiments were accurately expressed in the latest new home sales results. The Commerce Department says new home sales in January fell to the slowest pace since February 1995, and that prices have returned to September 2004 levels, or $216,000 for a median-priced new home.

New home inventories rose to 9.9 months on hand, the most bloated in more than 26 years.

That mirrors the dismal showing in existing home sales reported by the National Association of Realtors. In January, sales were down 0.4 percent from December, but 23.4 percent below January 2006.

Consumers sentiment is down, the economy is slowing, and many feel we may already be in a recession.

The natural instinct is to roll up the driveway, shutter the windows and wait for the financial storm to blow over, but not everyone is locking themselves in the basement.

Some members of the financial press are beginning to suggest that a bottom is near, and that buyers should get out and start looking for bargains in homes.

Time Magazine ran a piece this week titled, "Ignore the Headlines!" by Dan Kadlec, where he notes that Fed rate cuts always "lift the economy eventually." He also makes the case that buying a home today will beat waiting another year even if home prices drop an additional 10 percent.

To buy a $218,900 home at 5.5 percent is $994.31 a month. To buy next year at $197,010 at 6 percent will cost $994.94.

The irony is that in the time Kadlec did his research and when the magazine came out, interest rates were already back over 6 percent, making his example all the more compelling.

The Motley Fool's Marko Djuranovic wrote on February 25th, 2008 that "the shape of the U.S. housing market is not nearly as bad as some analysts would have you believe." In his spirited defense of home prices as being far from overvalued, he points out that home sizes have increased 47 percent from 1973 (1,525 to 2,248 square feet), and that today's homes feature sturdier construction materials, more expensive siding, outdoor amenities, more complex wiring, sophisticated heating and cooling systems, and larger kitchens.

"And the moment that the supply of existing homes begins to shrink, potential first-time home buyers will wake up to the fact that between low interest rates and homes that sell at (or below) replacement cost, they can grab the deal of a lifetime," says Djuranovic.

As Kadlec points out, you just never know, but you may not save anything to wait, and you've "spent a year living someplace you'd rather not be."

Published: February 29, 2008

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Blanche Evans is the award-winning senior editor of Realty Times, the Internet's leading independent real estate news service. She is featured daily on the Realty Times Video Network in the "Realty Viewpoint" segment. Blanche has been named one of the "25 Most Influential People In Real Estate" by REALTOR Magazine, and has been twice recognized as a "notable." In 2005, she was named "Top Reporter Covering the NAR" by Delahaye-Bacon's. Blanche is a renowned author of five real estate books. Her newest, Bubbles, Booms and Busts: Make Money In Any Real Estate Market, McGraw-Hill, was rave-reviewed by The New York Times. She was also selected from hundreds of real estate experts to contribute to Donald Trump's book, Trump: The Best Real Estate Advice I Ever Received: 100 Top Experts Share Their Strategies, Rutledge Hill Press, and is featured on page 68. Order Now Review - Honors In 2006, Blanche was selected among scores of candidates to author two consumer real estate guidebooks for the National Association of Realtors: The NAR Guide to Home Buying, and The NAR Guide to Home Selling, Wiley & Sons. She is currently planning two new books for the NAR and its members.       Known for her keen insight into real estate industry issues and for her ability to make complex subjects easy to understand, Blanche is a sought-after keynote and continuing education speaker. Real estate organizations from MLSs, to brokerages, to franchisors, to associations hire her to provide up-to-the-minute analysis of real estate industry news and advice on how to improve revenues. Her passionate delivery, peppered with stinging wit, is a huge hit with audiences and fans. Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors, Blanche Evans, Richard Courtney, president 2007, GRAR "The GNAR membership meeting last week featured Blanche Evans as the keynote speaker. Her comments and insights resonated extremely well with those in attendance and we have had many requests for copies of her PowerPoint Presentation. She was a terrific part of the membership meeting and convention program!" - Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors Coverage from WSMV, Nashville - 8-14-2007 That Interview Guy - Get Inside The Head Of Today's Generation 2007 AE Institute Session - To purchase 2006 AE Institute Session - Parts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 HouseValues Mastermind call - Parts 1 2 Blanche's fireside chat with Jeremy Conaway, HAR - Click here. To contact Blanche, email her at . For more articles by Blanche, click here.