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August 20, 2008
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Realty Viewpoint: Housing Flu Running Its Course

The Housing Flu has spread from the three sickest hosts to the rest of the country, says a new report by Global Insight, a financial analysis firm.

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Among the most comprehensive of the home price analysts covering 84 percent of all housing units, the House Prices in America report covers 330 housing markets, 262 of which experienced declines in the first quarter 2008. Most of the contagion is in California, Florida, and Michigan where 45 of the 50 worst performing markets are located.

Flu can be miserable, and there's no question that most of the country is feeling the symptoms. Home prices dropped 6.7 percent in the first quarter 2008, mostly due to overpriced areas being put to bed to rest.

Five symptoms need to get better before housing is healthy again -- price, credit, expenses, supply and foreclosures.

Price is already well on the road to recovery. In 2006, Global Insights found that 53 markets were overvalued. By the end of March, only eight housing markets were. Researchers say that the Northeast and coastal California and Florida are now fairly valued.

The next biggest hurdle is credit. Banks are currently looking at more than credit scores and housing comparables -- they're looking at how long homes have been on the market, and disregarding individual features as relevant to price. The pendulum has swung the other way in credit with lenders saying yes only if the loan is insured by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, PMI, or other third-parties. They've also all but shut down equity lines of credit, and if a homeowner is planning to rent a home and rebuy, the bank wants more than a signed lease - they want proof that utility bills have been transferred to the tenant's name.

These requirements aren't unreasonable, they are just unexpected by homeowners and buyers used to getting what they want.

It will take time for bad loans to be spun into good loans.

Tight household expenses are depressing consumers. Gas and food doubling in price since the housing boom says it all. When those come back down, consumers can breathe a sigh of relief.

Excess supply. Nationwide, housing is at about 11 months on hand, which means it would take that long to sell every house on the market if no more listings were added.

Last, foreclosures are up. According to RealtyTrac, banks will seize about 60,000 properties a month through December 2008. By then, about 1 million U.S. homes, or a quarter of all homes that are for sale, may be bank-owned.

Flu is a virus that simply has to run its course. It doesn't respond to antibiotics, and housing won't respond to quick fixes either, but it will respond to the greatest healer of all -- time.

Published: June 3, 2008

Use of this article without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.




Blanche Evans is the award-winning senior editor of Realty Times, the Internet's leading independent real estate news service. She is featured daily on the Realty Times Video Network in the "Realty Viewpoint" segment.

Blanche has been named one of the "25 Most Influential People In Real Estate" by REALTOR Magazine, and has been twice recognized as a "notable." In 2005, she was named "Top Reporter Covering the NAR" by Delahaye-Bacon's.

Blanche is a renowned author of five real estate books. Her newest, Bubbles, Booms and Busts: Make Money In Any Real Estate Market, McGraw-Hill, was rave-reviewed by The New York Times. She was also selected from hundreds of real estate experts to contribute to Donald Trump's book, Trump: The Best Real Estate Advice I Ever Received: 100 Top Experts Share Their Strategies, Rutledge Hill Press, and is featured on page 68.


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Review - Honors

In 2006, Blanche was selected among scores of candidates to author two consumer real estate guidebooks for the National Association of Realtors: The NAR Guide to Home Buying, and The NAR Guide to Home Selling, Wiley & Sons. She is currently planning two new books for the NAR and its members.

     

Known for her keen insight into real estate industry issues and for her ability to make complex subjects easy to understand, Blanche is a sought-after keynote and continuing education speaker. Real estate organizations from MLSs, to brokerages, to franchisors, to associations hire her to provide up-to-the-minute analysis of real estate industry news and advice on how to improve revenues. Her passionate delivery, peppered with stinging wit, is a huge hit with audiences and fans.


Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors, Blanche Evans, Richard Courtney, president 2007, GRAR

"The GNAR membership meeting last week featured Blanche Evans as the keynote speaker. Her comments and insights resonated extremely well with those in attendance and we have had many requests for copies of her PowerPoint Presentation. She was a terrific part of the membership meeting and convention program!" - Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors

Coverage from WSMV, Nashville - 8-14-2007

That Interview Guy - Get Inside The Head Of Today's Generation
2007 AE Institute Session - To purchase
2006 AE Institute Session - Parts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
HouseValues Mastermind call - Parts 1 2

Blanche's fireside chat with Jeremy Conaway, HAR - Click here.

To contact Blanche, email her at .

For more articles by Blanche, click here.



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